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IT’S A CEASEFIRE in Israel’s attack on Lebanon, starting at 10pm UK time tonight. It’s talks too, as US President Donald Trump invites both parties to the White House.
It’s about time we saw a ceasefire. This ceasefire is not a triumph for diplomacy – it’s more a case of “what took you so long?” When the two week ceasefire between the USA and Iran was agreed, Israel said this was only a bilateral cessation of hostilities. It carried on bombing Lebanon – aiming, it said, at Hezbollah, the political and military organisation in Lebanon supported by Iran.
It hasn’t got a very good aim, then – or perhaps it is just being very flexible over the question of who is pro-Iran. The Lebanese Health Ministry says that at least 2,089 people were killed in the first six weeks of the Israeli attack, with 6,762 wounded. Some 20% of the population has been displaced. Infrastructure has been destroyed – including all the bridges that link the south of Lebanon with the rest of the country.
The USA/Iran peace talks face several red lines – issues which neither side wants to give up. The same is the case for talks between Israel and Lebanon. The military action is all one-way, with Israel attacking Lebanon. Lebanon has less to offer in negotiations: Lebanon is not attacking Israel, although Hezbollah has fired some missiles, so it can’t offer to halt attacks on Israel.
It can’t – but it can. Lebanon can easily agree not to start attacking Israel, but what Israel will be looking for is for Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. There is no way Lebanon can do that on its own – or possibly at all.
The Lebanese army has warned citizens tempted to return to exercise restraint. Destroyed infrastructure will make it hard to travel; Israel has destroyed many villages, so there is less to return to than there was to escape from; and there is further danger from unexploded ordnance. Although Israel has promised to cease bombing Lebanon, its troops are occupying a 10km strip of south Lebanon which it describes as a security buffer.
The US and Israel are acting in tandem. They planned their war together. Trump agreed a ceasefire with Iran which gave Israel a last chance to destroy as much of possible of Lebanon. Iran’s sticking point was always that the ceasefire with the USA applied to Israel too. Israel disagreed, and kept firing. Trump announced he was prepared to give talks with Iran another go – and Israel agreed to stop firing on Lebanon, removing that sticking point.
Trump has referred to the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire as yet another war he has “ended”. The US/Iran ceasefire was intended to last a fortnight, and Israel’s ceasefire with Lebanon is limited to ten days. Trump will have to do an unimaginable amount of negotiating in a few short days if he is to end the war.
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