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THE USA has left Islamabad after 21 hours of talks with Iran – moaning that Iran had not agreed to its “final and best offer”. Iran has stated that the USA came in with “excessive demands”.
Iran has also reported that the talks took place in an atmosphere of “mistrust, suspicion and doubt”. The USA seems to have misunderstood the term “peace talks” and seems to have treated the talks as an attempt to negotiate Iran’s surrender.
The last time there was a major peace deal with Iran, January 2016, it took 18 months to negotiate an agreement – and that had been preceded by 13 years of talks! Incidentally, in that agreement Iran agreed not to develop nuclear weapons and gave the International Atomic Energy Agency access to verify that it was keeping to the agreement. That agreement ended when US President Donald Trump, during his first term in office, withdrew from the agreement.
During the 21 hours, the negotiating teams broke into small groups to discuss the various issues on the peace plans the parties had put forward before the ceasefire. Some progress was apparently made, but there were too many red lines to in the peace plans to conclude a comprehensive peace deal in just one day.
What happens next? US Vice-President – and David Walliams look-alike – J.D. Vance is on his way back to the USA where he will discuss the situation with US President Donald Trump, who will try to come up with a way out of the impossible situation he has put himself in.
Although Trump pointed out, after the ceasefire began and before the talks ended, that he had US troops in the area and was still prepared to attack civilian targets in Iran, there are many pressures on him not to return to military action. This war is increasingly unpopular and there are elections on 3rd November which he must try to win.
The last two years of Trump’s presidency will be very difficult if he has a hostile Parliament in his way. If the war is unpopular, so are the problems with the economy that it has brought. Inflation rose to 3.3% in March – the highest level since Trump took office. That means higher food prices (unpopular) and higher prices for fuel (unpopular) which can increase the cost of everything else, from manufactured goods to food.
On the other hand, Trump will not want to be seen as a failure. In the past he has got away with just lying about things, claiming he had ended several wars, some of which had not even taken place. He won’t find it so easy to declare a victory in this one. This ridiculous man already has blood on his hands – and it’s not over yet.
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