Israel U-turns and will talk with Lebanon

NO-ONE SAW that coming. Since the fragile Iran/USA ceasefire began, Israel has been claiming that the agreement didn’t apply to them. They announced their intention to continue bombing Lebanon.

Iran responded calmly, saying that if the ceasefire didn’t apply to Lebanon, there was no ceasefire – and no deal.  Now Israel has backed down.

The news broke just before 5pm UK time – though the change of plan seems to have been decided up to 24 hours earlier. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement of the U-turn said that he had told his Cabinet of the plan for bilateral talks yesterday. After the Cabinet, Israel unleashed a huge bombardment of Lebanon that saw many deaths and injuries. It seems now that Israel knew that last night was its big chance to cause destruction and put its foot down hard.

The reason why Israel has gone for talks is probably rooted in Trump’s climbdown over the attack on Iran. A probable scenario is that Israel has long wanted to attack Iran and cajoled the USA into taking the lead, flattering Trump that he could make history and look strong. The USA started the attack, with Israel joining in but also going for the Iran-supported Hizbollah in Lebanon.

Trump was wrong-footed when Iran didn’t surrender and the regime could not be changed “from the air”. He upped the rhetoric, and this didn’t work. Other countries around the world were not backing him and were even turning away from him – as were US politicians, including some in his own party, and voters.

Trump persuaded Pakistan to save his skin by offering talks, and he called off “Armageddon” at the last minute. Israel probably realised their fair-weather friend was drawing back and they would no longer have cover to attack Lebanon – but they had already taken over the south of the country and displaced a large part of the population.  They announced their U-turn as late as they could.

So far, so… well, far.  The talks between Iran and the USA may well not lead to an agreement, and the same applies to the newly announced talks between Israel and Lebanon. These talks will give the people of the Middle East some respite – but the war is not over yet.

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