AS US PRESIDENT Donald Trump clings to the idea that ceasefires are in place, bombs are raining down on the people of the Middle East. Trump keeps repeating that he is close to agreeing a peace agreement with Iran – but it never happens.
In its talks with the USA – or, rather, its talks with peace broker Pakistan – Iran always insisted that any peace agreement between the USA and Iran had to include an end to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon. Israel signed up to a ceasefire with Lebanon – but immediately claimed that the ceasefire did not cover what it described as defensive attacks on the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. It continued to bomb targets in south Lebanon and to issue orders to local people to leave areas it wanted to target. It is now said to have occupied around 12% of Lebanon’s territory.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has been firing rockets at Israel. Few have got through Israel’s defences, but there have been frequent air raid warnings in Israel, making the population increasingly jittery and more tolerant of Israel using military force. Now Iran has got in on the act, carrying out its first direct attack on Israel since the “ceasefire” a couple of months ago.
Israel carried out air strikes on Beirut on Sunday, 7th June – claiming it was in retaliation for recent Hezbollah firing rockets at Israel. At the time of writing, Israel has carried out air strikes against Iran’s defence systems too. Iran has claimed that Israel attacked a petrochemical facility in Mahshar, south-west Iran – and retaliated by launching missiles at an Israeli petrochemical plant in Haifa.
US President Donald Trump has urged Israel not to retaliate further. However, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is thought to want to resume the war with Iraq in order to appease his population’s concerns. At the time of writing (early on Monday, 8th June), the breaking news is that that explosions have been heard in Tehran.
Both leaders are under pressure as elections loom – in October for Israel and the mid-terms in November for Trump. With Israelis coming under direct attack, it is thought that Netanyahu sees more military action as his best chance of retaining office. With people in the USA becoming increasingly fed up with war, mostly because of the increasing price of petrol, Trump sees a peace agreement as the best way to get the Republicans through the mid-terms.
While these two leaders try to save their political skins, Israel has closed all crossings into Gaza – ending the flow of aid. A spokesperson for Israel claims that people in Gaza will not suffer, because there are enough stocks of aid to last a long time. Aid agencies disagree – welcoming what has been coming in, but arguing that it is nowhere near enough to sustain the population.
In the meantime, there are reports this morning (Monday, 8th June) that the pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen have joined in the conflict. They appear to have launched at least one missile at Israel, which was probably intercepted without causing any injuries. The Houthis have now declared that they will stop any Israeli ships entering the Red Sea.
It is not at all clear how Trump will find a way out of this tangled situation. Over the last couple of weeks he has been saying that a peace agreement with Iran is nearly concluded. It has never materialised. There is a growing mainstream consensus that Trump miscalculated when he agreed to attack Iran. Everyone who isn’t Trump need him to return to the real world and put an end to this war.
●Read more about it: Rubio hints Iran peace plan may be in sight Trump holds back on Iran attack – for now