STUPENDOUS. UNPRECEDENTED. A game changer. That’s the mainstream media’s reaction to the Green Party’s victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Are they jumping the gun?
First, the result. Green Party, 14,980 (41%) Reform UK, 10,578 (29%) Labour, 9,364 (26%) Conservatives, 706 (2%) Lib Dems, 653 (2%)
Monster Raving Loony Party 159 Advance UK 154 Rejoin EU Party 98 Libertarian Party 47 Social Democratic Party 46 Communist League 29 Turnout: 47%
Yes, this is a very good result for the Greens, but you can’t extrapolate the results of a single by-election to predict what will happen at a General Election which is probably over three years away. Voters use elections to build a government. They use by-elections to make a protest.
It is well known that the Gorton & Denton is a constituency of two halves: a more traditional white working class half, and a newer half populated by Asian voters and students. That made it Labour’s natural environment, and it was one of their safest seats. What changed? Let’s look at what the result means for the parties that took part.
Greens The Greens were able to target both parts of the constituency. Their candidate, Hannah Spencer, is a plumber and spoke up for the workers in her constituency who are still struggling with the cost of living. She also related to the Muslim voters in her constituency: she spoke about how she was sat with Muslims while a man was arrested for taking an axe into Manchester Central Mosque. In her victory speech, she criticised politicians who look for scapegoats, saying that they underestimate “how similar we all actually are”. Good for her: that’s tangibly different from Keir Starmer’s take on racism (yes, I’ll be harsh with refugees).
The Party has been feted in the media as a new radical force which will mop up Labour’s disillusioned left wing, confirmed by this result. However, its vote in Gorton & Denton may have been inflated by voters who saw the Greens as the best way to stop Reform. The by-election victory may boost the Green vote in this May’s local and national elections, but it Their agenda may not appeal to voters in a General Election who will see them as a protest party rather than a stable Government.
Reform The greatest delight of the day is that Reform didn’t win, closely followed by seeing Reform’s apparently unstoppable juggernaut having a pit stop after all. Reform is supposed to be the UK’s populist party, set up as a separate party after Boris Johnson failed to turn the Tories into a UK version of the Trump Movement. It’s good at knowing what it’s against, so it can easily rally voters who are generally against what the Government is doing. It is less good at presenting credible policies for change – often resorting to wild rambling about things that could be done that sound more like the Man in the Pub than a rational politician. Farage presenting a Shadow Cabinet of former ministers from Boris Johnson’s Cabinet during the campaign didn’t project a great image.
The Greens have shown that you get results if you relate to your voters without being divisive. Reform’s not listening. After the election result was declared, the disappointed Reform candidate told the BBC that at least Reform had addressed British issues rather than Gaza and had issued leaflets in English, not other languages. They remain a threat, however. They could still do well at the May elections, as few candidates will challenge them in the way that the Greens did in Manchester.
Labour Much has been made of Labour coming third, after Reform. However, the difference in the votes for these two parties is not great. Labour and Reform were essentially neck and neck, both behind the Greens. The bigger point is that Labour lost its safe seat, and Labour needs to listen to that protest.
The media translate that as Labour needs a new Leader – which is just their way of undermining Labour. Having called on the Party to elect a new Leader, they would immediately lay into any new Leader who happened to be elected. Any new Leader would have to be guided by the 2024 manifesto and assisted by a front bench who have spent the last 18 months saying how they support Starmer.
Starmer is going to have to change and he is going to have to take his Party with him if Labour is going to improve its standing. To do that, he’s going to have to learn some politics, which seems far from likely.
Conservatives The Tory vote is terrible and show what an irrelevant force they are on a local or a national scale. Kemi Badenoch, with her nasty, sneering approach, is making matters worse for them.
Lib-Dems The Lib-Dems had a bad night too. They represent very little as a party, with a huge amount of their success coming from protest votes from voters with no other protest party to vote for.
The others Various other candidates stood, receiving 29-159 votes each. It is a welcome part of the UK election system that anyone can stand for election on the basis of paying the deposit. However, these low votes show just how low support for these fringe parties is. Small left wing parties should remember this at coming elections.
Independent observers Apparently some independent observers noticed many couples going into polling booths together and assumed this was Muslim men taking their wives into the booth to coerce them into voting Green. Those observers don’t understand the dynamics of Muslim families. The Council pointed out that objections should have been raised with the polling station manager at the time. The Council did not explain why these “independent observers” were allowed to hang around inside the polling station.
Starmer Labour MPs will be worried by this result. They will be worrying about whether they will retain their seats at the General Election. But there are elections in May, and no Labour MP – or member – is going to say that the best way to get through them is to sack Starmer and appoint an interim Leader to lead the party through those local and national elections. After the elections, if there is another bad result, it will be a different story. There’s time to refresh your drink and get a new scoop of popcorn before the Labour soap opera gets dramatic.
●Read more about it: McSweeney falls on sword in desperate move to save Starmer Starmer’s broom still trying to sweep away dissent