Margaret Hodge revealed the strategy of the Corbyn coup plotters on Radio 4 this morning (Sunday, 10th July): to win by keeping Jeremy Corbyn off the ballot paper for Labour Leader.
Her revelation helps explain the tactics of the Coup Organisers, which had been leaving observers perplexed. If Angela Eagle wanted to stand for Leader this year, why did she not just get some nominations and stand in the annual election? Why did she go through this protracted process of calling on Jeremy Corbyn to resign? If Angela Eagle wanted to stand for Leader, why was it Margaret Hodge who moved the motion of no confidence? Now more is clear.
•First, what did “Brexit” have to do with it? Of those who voted “remain”, 30% had voted Tory at the last General Election and 40% had voted Labour at the last General Election. In other words, David Cameron had risked calling the referendum but could not deliver his voters to the “remain” camp. Labour delivered more of its voters to “remain” than the Tories did. Look at it another way: of those who voted SNP at the last election, 64% voted “remain” – and SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon was praised for carrying nearly two thirds of her party’s supporters with her. Of those who voted Labour at the last General Election, 63% voted “remain” – and Jeremy Corbyn was roundly criticised by other Labour MPs
The Coup was not inspired by Brexit: it was prepared before the May elections. The Plotters were ready to go – but then the results were not as bad as had been predicted, so they could not say that Corbyn had failed at the ballot box. As soon as the shock “leave” vote won in the referendum, they dusted down their plans and they were off. They did not have to say “Angela Eagle is challenging Jeremy because she disagrees with him”, they could say “Angela Eagle is trying to save the Labour Party.” (Indeed, the “Save the Labour Party” domain name appears to have been bought up some days before Margaret Hodge began her “no confidence” campaign.)
•Second, why did anyone think that they could win a contest against Jeremy Corbyn? Only last year Corbyn won the votes of 121,751 individual party members (49.589% of the vote), 88,449 votes of registered supporters (83.76 of the vote) and 41,217 votes from affiliated members (trade unionists – 57.609% of the vote) – which added up to a total of 251,417 votes (59.5% of all votes cast). It’s going to be a tall order – which is why the Plotters are gambling on being able to exclude Jeremy Corbyn from the ballot paper.
The Labour Party rule book says that when there is a vacancy for Leader, any MP who wants to stand in the election of a new Leader has to be nominated by 15% of MPs to be a valid candidate. Thus last year, when Ed Miliband resigned, there was a vacancy and Jeremy Corbyn had to be nominated by 15% of Labour MPs. He famously received the 35th nomination five minutes before nominations closed – with some of his supporters nominating him to ensure there was a wide-ranging debate about Labour’s future. Therefore the Plotters wanted to undermine Jeremy Corbyn and force him to resign – so if he wanted to stand again, he would have to get 35 MPs to nominate him. The thinking was that many MPs who nominated him last year, just to ensure there was a wide debate, would not do so again, so he would not be on the ballot paper.
The Plotters were prepared for the eventuality that Corbyn would not resign – no matter how much pressure they piled upon him. If he did not resign, there would be no vacancy. In this case, the Rule Book provides the following advice:
“Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year […] In this case, any nomination must be supported by 20% of [the number of Labour MPs].”
That is clear: it is the challenger who must obtain nominations. The incumbent should be automatically on the ballot paper. The plotters will be arguing that as soon as Angela Eagle obtains nominations from 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party (that is around 50 MPs, more than in last year’s election which was held under the “vacancy” requirement) – then Jeremy Corbyn must also obtain nominations from 50 MPs if his name is to be on the ballot paper. They have pushed the no confidence motion carefully, and the resignations were staggered to look like there was a growing momentum – they are confident that Jeremy Corbyn cannot obtain support form 50 MPs.
“How can this be?” we hear you cry, “that would mean that 50 MPs can unseat a Leader, one with support from 60% of the Labour Party, just by calling a contest – not by winning the ensuing ballot”. Yup. That’s right; right in one: that’s what they hope to do – to win by not letting Jeremy Corbyn take part in the election.
The Labour Party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) will, in the first instance, have to rule on whether Jeremy Corbyn is automatically on the ballot paper or whether he will have to obtain nominations. That’s the same committee has over-ruled the votes of Tower Hamlets Labour Party members and removed Lutfur Rahman as Labour’s mayoral candidate in favour of the man who came third (and spectacularly lost the election) – so don’t hold your breath. On the other hand, whatever their ruling is, it will probably be challenged in Court by the “losing” side – and the Courts have a fairly poor record of supporting Labour Party democracy too.
Angela Eagle says she is standing to heal the Party – which is pretty rich, as all she can be healing it from is an upset entirely of her own making. The election is not about Brexit, it’s about whether left wing policies can ever be adopted by the Labour Party. Will the plotters succeed? There is one key point they may have overlooked… of which more in our next piece on this gargantuan saga.
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