NEW RESEARCH commissioned by London Mayor Sadiq Khan has warned that a “hard Brexit” could subdue economic growth for ten years – handing London “a lost decade of lower growth”.
The warning comes from Cambridge Econometrics, a company commissioned by Sadiq Khan to forecast the results of the various Brexit options to assist London in planning for the best economic outcome of leaving the EU. He commissioned the research after the Government had to admit that analysis it claimed to be undertaking barely existed.
The analysis suggests that in the “no deal” option – in which the UK left the EU customs union and the single market, but without securing a bilateral trade deal – could see half a million jobs axed in the UK and knock £50 billion off investment in the economy by 2030.
“This new analysis shows why the government should now change its approach and negotiate a deal that enables us to remain in both the single market and the customs union,” Sadiq Khan explained. “It’s astonishing that the government has failed to do any proper impact assessments on what Brexit could mean for our economy.”
The figures produced by the research are an estimate – not an exact science, and the impact of leaving the EU will only be known when it happens. However, the uncertainty over the conditions under which the UK will leave are certainly depressing the jobs market now.
At the same time, we are also seeing a number of companies, particularly in retail, issuing profit warnings – prompting real fears they will also be looking to shed labour in the coming months.
Improvements in technology are already driving down the need for people to fill jobs. Supermarkets and convenience stores are introducing every more self-service tills, while robots and automation are taking over more warehouse functions.
Londoners will be pleased that the Mayor has commissioned research into Brexit and that he has made it public. Now, however, everyone is waiting to learn what Sadiq Khan is going to do about the gloomy news.